(Graphic by Troy Becker/ The Forum via the North Dakota Monitor)
(North Dakota Monitor) – On the surface, Republican candidates for the top political races in North Dakota appear set for a clean sweep with just over a month until the general election, a poll commissioned by the North Dakota News Cooperative shows.
Undecided voters could still potentially be a swing factor, however, with roughly 20% in the three main races still unsure who they’ll vote for.
The race for U.S. Senate between Republican incumbent Sen. Kevin Cramer and Democratic-NPL challenger Katrina Christiansen is tightening, but not likely enough for an upset if the numbers continue to play out.
Results from the North Dakota Poll also show North Dakotans favoring other Republican candidates, including Kelly Armstrong for governor, Julie Fedorchak for U.S. House and Donald Trump for president.
The poll found 51% of the 500 respondents are likely to vote for Cramer and 29% for Christiansen. Of those, 39% said they would definitely vote for Cramer, while 24% are a lock to vote for Christiansen. Another 20% were undecided or refused to state their preference for either candidate.
The 22-point gap in this latest poll is closer than a recent poll commissioned by Cramer and conducted between Sept. 22-24. That poll, conducted by WPA Intelligence, showed him with a 29-point lead over candidate Christiansen as reported by Forum Communications on Sept. 30.
WPA Intelligence, a nationally-recognized firm based in Washington, D.C., also carried out the latest NDNC poll, sampling the views of registered voters likely to vote in the upcoming general election on Nov. 5. The NDNC poll was conducted between Sept. 28-30.
Cramer derives the most support from men 55 and over, capturing 62% of that demographic. Christiansen’s support came from women 55 and over, with 44% in the group favoring her. Overall, Cramer comes out stronger among women voters with 42% likely voting for him over the 35% leaning toward Christiansen.
Kristin Hedger was also listed as an independent candidate in the WPA polling questionnaire and received 4% of the support. While Hedger is named as a candidate on a number of national sites, including at The Washington Post’s election tracker, Politics1.com and others, she is not on the North Dakota ballot, according to the office of the North Dakota Secretary of State.
WPA explained the error in Hedger initial inclusion in the poll but noted that the data wasn’t significant enough to change any outcomes. WPA merged Hedger’s 4% with the undecided data in the final results.
Governor, U.S. House races nearly locks
Current North Dakota Congressman Kelly Armstrong looks set to take over the governor’s office from Gov. Doug Burgum in January, according to the poll, with 54% of respondents expected to vote for the Republican candidate.
A total of 24% indicated they would likely vote for Democratic-NPL candidate Merrill Piepkorn, with only 3% signaling a vote for independent candidate Michael Coachman. Another 19% of voters polled were undecided, according to the data.
A Republican win would continue the party’s dominance of the state executive branch. It has held the governor’s office since the early 1990s, when Republican Ed Shafer got the nod. Prior to that, Democratic-NPL governor George A. Sinner held office from 1985 until Shafer took over in January 1992.
The road ahead for Republican candidate Julie Fedorchak also looks clear in the race for North Dakota’s U.S. Congressional seat.
A total of 53% of respondents said they would likely vote for Fedorchak over Democratic-NPL candidate Trygve Hammer, who polled with 28% likely to vote for him. Again, another 19% are undecided, the poll indicated.
Presidential preferences
In the race for the next president, former President Donald Trump looks set to continue a strong run of showings in the state, according to the North Dakota Poll.
A total of 59% of respondents said they would likely vote for Trump and his running mate Ohio Senator J.D. Vance. Another 32% of respondents said they would likely vote for the Democrat nominee, current Vice President Kamala Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz.
Here the decisions are mostly set: Only 8% indicated they were undecided.
If those numbers hold, they signal a slight drop in the state for Trump from the past two elections, however. The poll figures also show Vice President Harris polling stronger here than the past two Democratic candidates for president.
In the 2020 presidential election, which Trump lost to current President Joe Biden, Trump secured 65.11% of the vote in North Dakota compared to the Biden-Harris ticket which took 31.76, according to official data from the office of the North Dakota Secretary of State.
Trump took 62.96% of the vote in North Dakota in the 2016 election that he won nationally, with the Democrat candidate Hillary R. Clinton receiving 27.23%.
The North Dakota Poll surveyed 500 eligible and likely voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4.4%. The poll surveyed roughly equal numbers of men and women, as well as equally from the eastern and western halves of the state.
A total of 29% of respondents self-identified as very conservative, 19% as somewhat conservative, and 28% as moderate. Nine percent said they were somewhat liberal and 5% very liberal.
The North Dakota News Cooperative is a nonprofit news organization providing reliable and independent reporting on issues and events that impact the lives of North Dakotans. The organization increases the public’s access to quality journalism and advances news literacy across the state. For more information about NDNC or to make a charitable contribution, please visit newscoopnd.org.
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