Flood threat remains low across Red River Basin

Although the temps have turned cold – abnormally dry conditions underlay a meager snowpack across much of the region.  The National Weather Service says the end result is a low risk for snowmelt flooding across the Red River and Devils Lake Basins.

Since early December the snowfall totals are 25-75 percent of normal.    Streamflow conditions are near to somewhat below average for this time of year.   Based on current conditions the outlook suggests the 50-50 crest for Grand Forks would be around 22.8 feet.  Flood stage is 28 feet.

Climate outlooks currently indicate an increased chance for near normal temperatures but a somewhat wetter late winter early spring period.  That could increase the risk for late season heavy snow or rainfall.

RED RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES… Long-Range Probabilistic Outlook

Valid February 15, 2021 – May 16, 2021

LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 05%

——– —— —— —— —— —— —— ——

WAHPETON 8.3 9.0 10.0 10.9 12.1 13.8 14.2

HICKSON  15.6 18.3 20.4 22.9 26.5 30.8 32.1

FARGO    16.8 17.2 18.7 20.5 24.7 31.5 33.3

HALSTAD  11.0 12.4 14.7 18.6 24.4 29.8 32.2

GRAND FORKS 18.1 18.7 19.6 22.8 29.2 35.6 41.1

OSLO     12.2 13.7 16.1 22.1 29.6 33.7 35.1

DRAYTON  14.7 15.7 17.6 24.4 32.5 37.4 40.4

PEMBINA       17.2   19.4   21.9   28.3   35.6   41.2   45.6