The River Forecast Center has released its first flood outlook of the season. It suggests the risk for significant spring flooding is in the Red River Valley is relatively low – and running below long-term historical averages.
Despite numerous early winter storms the month of January has been dry. In addition the region went into freeze-up with below normal soil moisture and near normal streamflows.
According to the National Weather Service late winter snowfall and spring precipitation will be important factors in the spring flood risk. Climate outlooks indicate a transition to overall below normal temperatures for the remainder of the winter and into spring.
The outlook puts the 50-50 crest prediction for the Red River in Grand Forks / East Grand Forks at 35 feet. That’s seven feet over flood stage.
…Red River Long-Range Probabilistic Outlook by River Stage…
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 05%
——– —— —— —— —— —— —— ——
Red River of the North…..
WAHPETON 10.2 10.7 11.2 11.9 13.4 14.8 15.6
HICKSON 18.3 19.8 21.4 24.5 29.6 33.5 35.4
FARGO 19.1 20.6 21.5 24.5 28.9 34.0 36.2
HALSTAD 15.7 18.1 20.6 23.5 28.6 33.9 37.6
GRAND FORKS 22.3 25.2 27.6 35.0 40.0 42.7 47.5
OSLO 19.4 24.6 27.8 33.6 34.8 35.6 37.7
DRAYTON 22.2 26.1 29.4 34.6 39.4 40.2 42.1
PEMBINA 29.0 32.7 37.3 42.2 47.5 49.7 51.0
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