Flood risk for RRV increases slightly

There’s still plenty of winter left but the National Weather Service has increased the flood potential from spring snowmelt in the Red River Valley.

According to river watchers the risk for significant snowmelt flooding is moderate to somewhat high – across the region.

Since December 1st snowfall across the basin runs from 90-130 percent of normal.  Base streamflows are normal for this time of year and the frost depth is slightly deeper than normal.  The latest flood outlook says lingering drought condition mean that surface storage has room for snowmelt – if the thaw is gentle.

The latest outlook pegs the 50-50 mark for a crest in Grand Forks / East Grand Forks at 44.4 feet.  Flood stage is 28.

Long-Range Probabilistic Outlook

Valid February 14, 2022 – May 15, 2022

LOCATION         95%        90%       75%      50%      25%      10%      05%

——– —— —— —— —— —— —— ——

WAHPETON     11.6      11.7       12.0       13.0      14.3      15.9       16.2

HICKSON          24.8      25.6       27.2       29.4      32.4      34.6       35.7

FARGO              24.0      25.2       27.2       30.9      33.9      35.9       38.3

HALSTAD          23.6      24.7       28.7       32.9      36.6      38.7       39.1

GRAND FORKS 36.8      38.7       41.8       44.4      46.1      49.2       50.6

OSLO                 34.0      34.4       35.3       36.3      37.1      38.4       39.0

DRAYTON         36.8      38.0       39.8       41.1      42.2      42.9       43.6