RRV Flood Outlook (NEW)

RRV Flood Outlook (NEW) Click to Enlarge

The risk of flooding has jumped up a bit in the latest Spring Flood Outlook issued by the River Forecast Center and National Weather Service. In fact the flood statement says this will likely be a top ten runoff year with rural flooding considered likely in most areas – less so in northeast North Dakota.

The outlook is based on base streamflows…soil moisture…frost depth…and much above normal snowpack. The snow water equivalent is running two to four inches above the long-term norm.

Greg Gust of the N-W-S in Grand Forks says the good news is some good thaw weather could arrive next week.

The outlook says there is a 50-50 chance the river will reach 50.6 feet in Grand Forks – East Grand Forks.

At that level it would be the second highest crest of all time. The report says there is a ten-percent chance of the crest exceeding the 1997 mark of 54.35.


RED RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES... Long-Range Probabilistic Outlook

Valid March 18, 2019 – June 16, 2019

LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 05%

-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------

WAHPETON 13.9 14.1 14.8 15.7 17.0 18.2 19.0

HICKSON 32.1 32.8 33.9 35.1 36.1 37.6 38.6

FARGO 33.8 34.9 36.5 37.9 38.9 40.3 41.4

HALSTAD 38.0 38.5 39.0 39.5 40.0 40.6 41.2

GRAND FORKS 45.8 47.5 49.0 50.6 52.7 54.6 56.7

OSLO 37.2 37.5 37.8 37.9 38.0 38.1 38.1

DRAYTON 41.8 42.4 43.0 43.7 44.6 45.3 46.0

PEMBINA 51.0 51.7 52.2 53.0 53.7 54.5 54.7


KNOX Staff Meteorologist Mark Ewens: (Graph)

Flood Outlook: The NWS in Grand Forks has updated the Spring 2019 Flood Potential Outlook. These are outlooks and not forecasts, but are presented as a range of river levels possible under various melt conditions. A prolonged, slow melt with little additional rain / snow would likely result in lower flood levels. A late, rapid melt with significant precipitation would likely result in higher flood levels.

The graphics are the March 15, 2019 Outlook for the Red River at East Grand Forks Minnesota. The bar graph represent the various ranges of approximate, possible river levels during the noted outlook period. Bar graph percentage levels range from >90% through 10% to %25. The higher probabilities [75% to >90%] approximate a range of river levels possible with a very slow melt and minimal spring precipitation; the 25% to 75% bars approximate the range of river levels possible with normal melt and precipitation patterns. The 10% to 25% bars approximate the range of possible river levels that would occur with a rapid melt and above normal rains around the time of melt. The thick purple line approximates the center of the 25% to 50% level, which is suggested by current weather and climate outlooks.


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